NGFS provides traders with climate scenario forecasts showing how different warming pathways impact economies. These country/state projections help assess climate risks, identify green investment opportunities, anticipate policy-driven market shifts
The NGFS datasets offer traders crucial climate scenario forecasts, showing how different warming pathways (1.5°C to 4°C) affect pollution, energy trends, and macroeconomic indicators. Available by country/state and quarterly/annually, these forecasts help traders assess climate risk exposure, identify green investment opportunities, and anticipate market shifts from policy changes, despite not being linked to specific securities.
NGFS purpose is to help strengthening the global response required to meet the goals of the Paris agreement and to enhance the role of the financial system to manage risks and to mobilize capital for green and low-carbon investments in the broader context of environmentally sustainable development.
To this end, the Network defines and promotes best practices to be implemented within and outside of the Membership of the NGFS and conducts or commissions analytical work on green finance.
NGFS data compiles the forecasts and simulations of many different climate research institutions.
The results of their models show possible future pollution levels, energy trends, and effects on macroeconomic indexes.
Investable Universe is not linked to any tickers specifically, but does have macroeconomic forecasts mapped by country.
Country Annual
Country Quarter
States Annual
States Quarter
1p5c
This ambitious scenario NGFS net-zero 2050, i.e. 1p5c, that was developed for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), limits global warming to 1.5 °C through immediate introduction of stringent climate policies and innovation, reaching net zero CO₂ emissions globally around 2050.
Some jurisdictions such as the US, EU and Japan reach net zero for all greenhouse gases by this point.
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is used to accelerate the decarbonisation but kept to the minimum possible and broadly in line with sustainable levels of bioenergy production.
Physical risks are relatively low but transition risks are high.
cat_current
This scenario explores the consequences of continuing along the path of implemented climate policies in 2020, with no further government action.
Global emissions remain high until mid-century and slowly decline after that, leading to about 2.7°C of global warming by 2100 (best estimate).
It was developed by an independent scientific analysis called the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), that monitors government climate action of 39 countries representing 85% of global emissions.
Find out more in the Methodology or on the Climate Action
cpol
This scenario assumes that only currently implemented climate policies are maintained, with no further strengthening.
Global greenhouse gas emissions grow until 2080, leading to about 3 °C of warming and irreversible changes like higher sea level rise.
It was developed for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).
In the NGFS terminology, this is considered a “hot house” scenario, characterised by high physical risks, but low transition risks
rcp26
The Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 2.6 is one of the four core greenhouse gas concentration pathways assessed by the IPCC in its fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
It assumes that CO2 emissions start declining by 2020 and reach zero by 2100, leading to a radiative forcing (change in energy flux to the atmosphere due to human activities) of 2.6 W/m2 by 2100.
This scenario is likely (66-90% chance) to limit global warming below 2°C by 2100.
rcp45
The Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 4.5 is one of the four core greenhouse gas concentration pathways assessed by the IPCC in its fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
It assumes that CO2 emissions start declining by approximately 2045 and reach roughly half of their 2050 levels by 2100, leading to a radiative forcing (change in energy flux to the atmosphere due to human activities) of 4.5 W/m2 by 2100.
RCP 4.5 is more likely than not to result in global temperature rise between 2 °C and 3 °C.
rcp60
The Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 6.0 is one of the four core greenhouse gas concentration pathways assessed by the IPCC in its fifth assessment report (AR5).
Global emissions are assumed to peak around 2080 then decline, leading to a radiative forcing (change in energy flux to the atmosphere due to human activities) of 6.0 W/m2 and to a global temperature rise by about 3-4°C by 2100.
rcp85
The Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 8.5 is one of the four core greenhouse gas concentration pathways assessed by the IPCC in its fifth assessment report (AR5).
It assumes that global emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, leading to a global mean temperature rise of close to 4°C in 2100.